Weekly Crop Commentary - 9/18/2026
Sep 18, 2026
Wes Bahan
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. Harvest is just getting started, and while rain showers have slowed some early activity, we are beginning to see combines roll in parts of the area. Local yield reports are still limited, but early comments from surrounding states suggest both corn and soybean yields are coming in better than many expected. That has helped slow the recent rally on the board, even though prices remain very attractive compared to where we have been the last couple of years.
Demand remains solid, but transportation is becoming one of the bigger stories as harvest approaches. Low water concerns on the lower Mississippi River, combined with fuel costs, are keeping barge freight expensive. Truck freight is feeling pressure as well. At the same time, processors are working to secure nearby coverage for both corn and soybeans, which is helping support short-term cash opportunities in some areas.
For many farms, harvest movement plans are already in place, but this is still a good time to look beyond nearby needs and consider the deferred pricing opportunities being offered. It is easy to stay bullish when yields look good, demand is steady, and the market still has support, but locking in profitable levels on a portion of bushels can help take risk off the table. For those who want to leave some upside open, making cash sales and owning calls against them is one way to establish a floor while still keeping a seat at the table if the market moves higher. With political uncertainty, fund positioning, river logistics, and harvest pressure all pulling on the market, the main message is simple: know your breakevens, reward profitable prices in increments, and keep talking through options before the combines get fully rolling.
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon, as we draw towards the end of September, even though the weather has not shown it yet which is a good thing for a lot of us, we are getting closer to the start of the 2026 harvest season. For us in the Eastern Region of Heritage territory it looks like we could very well have a big crop in front of us. Markets have traded on both sides this week as the funds have slowly been building a very long position. When the funds get this long, we use the phrase that we “Have to continue to feed the bull”. Basically, we are saying that we have to continue to give the fund buyer (speculator) a reason to stay in the market.
So, what is it going to take to keep the fund buyer engaged and continue to stay long. I think today we still have a number of things to keep our eyes on. First, next Thursday, China’s President is scheduled to come to Washington to have a face-to-face meeting with President Trump. I fully expect that to happen unless something major happens that we can’t foresee. China has been actively buying soybeans from the U.S. for shipment in Oct, Nov, and Dec. Will there be anything else going forward? We will see. Second, we continue to hear about this “Super El-Nino that continues to develop of the equatorial Pacific, that will affect the South America growing season, but we will have to wait and see how that develops over the next few months. Third, the war with Russia and Ukraine that has been going on for some time but as of late we have seen both sides bombing the others grain infrastructure and shipping has drastically slowed down out of the Black Sea Region. And finally, as we near the start of harvest, where will the U.S. national yields end up? These are some of the things that we will continue to have to watch as we move forward in the coming months.
I know a lot of you have contracted some bushels already and are waiting to see where we go from here, but I would say this. Continue to reward the market if it works higher but also maybe catch some bushels on the way down as well. We have not seen prices this high for a few years, and we need to take advantage of them while we are up here. Have a great weekend.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
It’s been a fairly steady week for the grain markets overall, but we are seeing things fall off a bit here today with beans and bean oil leading to some of the pressure.
At the end of last week, the grain markets were down going into Friday’s USDA report. The September WASDE report last Friday showed the USDA lowering projected corn yield to 178.5 bpa and cutting projected corn projection by 213 million from the August report. Soybean production was posted a little higher at 4. 535 billion bushels.
Looking to next week, on Thursday, President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi. Trade and ag purchases are expected to be among topics discussed. It will be interesting to see how markets react to any news or announcements from that meeting. China remains an important piece of the demand story for U.S. agriculture.
As of now, it looks like we may have some rain in the forecast for next week. Hopefully after next week, we will see things dry up a bit to get harvest rolling here soon. If your crops aren’t quite ready or field conditions aren’t fit for harvest, you can catch the Heritage crew at Farm Science Review next week!
Vice President, Grain Division
Good afternoon. Harvest is just getting started, and while rain showers have slowed some early activity, we are beginning to see combines roll in parts of the area. Local yield reports are still limited, but early comments from surrounding states suggest both corn and soybean yields are coming in better than many expected. That has helped slow the recent rally on the board, even though prices remain very attractive compared to where we have been the last couple of years.
Demand remains solid, but transportation is becoming one of the bigger stories as harvest approaches. Low water concerns on the lower Mississippi River, combined with fuel costs, are keeping barge freight expensive. Truck freight is feeling pressure as well. At the same time, processors are working to secure nearby coverage for both corn and soybeans, which is helping support short-term cash opportunities in some areas.
For many farms, harvest movement plans are already in place, but this is still a good time to look beyond nearby needs and consider the deferred pricing opportunities being offered. It is easy to stay bullish when yields look good, demand is steady, and the market still has support, but locking in profitable levels on a portion of bushels can help take risk off the table. For those who want to leave some upside open, making cash sales and owning calls against them is one way to establish a floor while still keeping a seat at the table if the market moves higher. With political uncertainty, fund positioning, river logistics, and harvest pressure all pulling on the market, the main message is simple: know your breakevens, reward profitable prices in increments, and keep talking through options before the combines get fully rolling.
Ralph Wince
Grain Merchandiser, Canfield (Region 5)
Good afternoon, as we draw towards the end of September, even though the weather has not shown it yet which is a good thing for a lot of us, we are getting closer to the start of the 2026 harvest season. For us in the Eastern Region of Heritage territory it looks like we could very well have a big crop in front of us. Markets have traded on both sides this week as the funds have slowly been building a very long position. When the funds get this long, we use the phrase that we “Have to continue to feed the bull”. Basically, we are saying that we have to continue to give the fund buyer (speculator) a reason to stay in the market.
So, what is it going to take to keep the fund buyer engaged and continue to stay long. I think today we still have a number of things to keep our eyes on. First, next Thursday, China’s President is scheduled to come to Washington to have a face-to-face meeting with President Trump. I fully expect that to happen unless something major happens that we can’t foresee. China has been actively buying soybeans from the U.S. for shipment in Oct, Nov, and Dec. Will there be anything else going forward? We will see. Second, we continue to hear about this “Super El-Nino that continues to develop of the equatorial Pacific, that will affect the South America growing season, but we will have to wait and see how that develops over the next few months. Third, the war with Russia and Ukraine that has been going on for some time but as of late we have seen both sides bombing the others grain infrastructure and shipping has drastically slowed down out of the Black Sea Region. And finally, as we near the start of harvest, where will the U.S. national yields end up? These are some of the things that we will continue to have to watch as we move forward in the coming months.
I know a lot of you have contracted some bushels already and are waiting to see where we go from here, but I would say this. Continue to reward the market if it works higher but also maybe catch some bushels on the way down as well. We have not seen prices this high for a few years, and we need to take advantage of them while we are up here. Have a great weekend.
Morgan Hefner
Grain Merchandiser, Nashport (Region 5)
It’s been a fairly steady week for the grain markets overall, but we are seeing things fall off a bit here today with beans and bean oil leading to some of the pressure.
At the end of last week, the grain markets were down going into Friday’s USDA report. The September WASDE report last Friday showed the USDA lowering projected corn yield to 178.5 bpa and cutting projected corn projection by 213 million from the August report. Soybean production was posted a little higher at 4. 535 billion bushels.
Looking to next week, on Thursday, President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi. Trade and ag purchases are expected to be among topics discussed. It will be interesting to see how markets react to any news or announcements from that meeting. China remains an important piece of the demand story for U.S. agriculture.
As of now, it looks like we may have some rain in the forecast for next week. Hopefully after next week, we will see things dry up a bit to get harvest rolling here soon. If your crops aren’t quite ready or field conditions aren’t fit for harvest, you can catch the Heritage crew at Farm Science Review next week!